Lineup Prep: Week 6

Tue Oct 13 11:46pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Purdy is playing at high level

We had two quality teams off last week, and this week is even tougher with four teams on a bye. This could be tough for some fantasy teams to navigate, with the Bengals, Lions, Dolphins and Vikings all off in Week 6. Hopefully, it doesn’t impact you too much. Just remember, a proactive owner is a winning owner. Try to figure out your lineup ahead of time when you have players on a bye. Just something to keep in mind going forward.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

All right, I will be the first to admit when I make a mistake. And I made one with Omarion Hampton. I can’t believe the players I passed on to get him. I was all in on Hampton, and he has been awful. The entire Chargers offense is a train wreck. I have little hope for a turnaround, either, especially when it comes to Hampton. The Chargers keep rotating backs, and Hampton seems to have fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. Not a good combination at all. So, a swing and a miss for me on that one. Ouch.

Speaking of bad, how about some of those coaching decisions last week? Wow. There were so many bad coaching moves that I have lost track of them all. How does that happen at this level? It is just crazy to me. Do better, NFL head coaches. It has been ugly for many of you this season.

I know we are just five weeks into the season, but kicker Spencer Shrader is 49th overall in fantasy scoring. Just crazy. Here are some of the players he has more fantasy points than right now: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, D’Andre Swift and Chase Brown, to name just a few. Again, it is really early, but Shrader has been a league winner through five games. And he went undrafted in most leagues.

I hate to say it, but I’m losing faith in Cam Ward as the franchise quarterback for the Titans. He has made little progress since entering the league last year. He holds onto the ball too long and doesn’t get it out on time. He drifts back in the pocket, hoping to extend the play and find someone open. He has not looked the part at all to start his career. Maybe he will pull a Bryce Young and put it together a little later than his team hoped, but I’m not so sure.

I seriously don’t know why I keep thinking this is going to be the year Derrick Henry starts to slow down. This guy is just a freak of nature. He looks as good as ever this year. I love watching him because his speed seems to build as he runs. Plus, he continues to have maybe the best stiff arm in all of football. Just continue to enjoy the ride. I think he can sustain his great start to the season.

Brock Bowers is going to lead all fantasy tight ends in scoring despite missing the first two games of the season because of injury. I’m sure there were a lot of freaked-out owners early in the season after hearing he had knee surgery, but they can relax now. Bowers is absolutely killing it this year and could get even stronger as the season progresses. He seems likely to pay off for all the fantasy owners who used a high-round pick on him.

I will officially say that Drake Maye is back. He has looked unbelievable over the last two games. It sure is amazing what a little confidence can do for a football player. Maye has his swagger back. He is seeing the field better and doing a much better job with his decision-making. He also has a favorable fantasy schedule coming up, facing the Jets, Bears, Dolphins, Packers and Lions.

News and Notes

Rams: The Rams released kicker Harrison Mevis on Tuesday. Los Angeles is signing Blake Grupe off the Jets’ practice squad, and Grupe will take over the starting kicking duties.

Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson was suspended without pay for two games on Tuesday. The NFL suspended him for punching Bills defensive end Bradley Chubb after last week’s game.

Bears: Bears defensive end Montez Sweat was suspended for two games for violating the NFL’s Performance-Enhancing Substances Policy. This will be a huge loss for the Bears’ defensive line.

HOT PLAYS

Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys

Williams continues to post very consistent numbers as the lead back for the Cowboys. He has had just one huge game, scoring 31.3 fantasy points, but has reached double-digit fantasy points in four of five games. His floor is very solid, making him a good RB1. We like him to have another big game this week against the Packers, who have struggled to stop the run. Green Bay allows the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and 127.6 rushing yards per game.

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

Purdy is off to a great start, ranking third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring through five games. Last week was his first game all season with fewer than 20 fantasy points. He has multiple touchdowns in every game this season and has two games with 30-plus fantasy points. Purdy is in complete command of the offense and has developed a great rapport with new receiver Mike Evans. He can get back to putting up big numbers this week against the Commanders, who allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Washington ranks just 29th overall against the pass, allowing 255 passing yards per game.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders

The Raiders need to get Jeanty going. He has cooled off since his huge opening game, rushing for fewer than 60 yards in four straight games. He also has not topped 20 fantasy points since Week 1. Look for him to get a big workload this week against the Bills, though. Buffalo has really struggled to stop the run and allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs. We expect the Raiders to lean more heavily on the running game in this one, taking some of the pressure off Kirk Cousins and the passing attack. This bodes well for Jeanty in Week 6.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills

Kincaid has disappointed in recent weeks. He has just one catch in each of his last two games, with two targets in each contest. He has scored fewer than five fantasy points in three straight games. He got off to a great start this year, though, so don’t rule out a turnaround. He has a good opportunity to get back on track this week against a Raiders team that has really struggled to stop tight ends. Las Vegas allows the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and has allowed tight ends to score 24-plus fantasy points in two of its last three games.

Tet McMillan, WR, Panthers

McMillan was off last week, but fantasy teams shouldn’t forget about him. He is coming off his best game of the season, catching 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. McMillan is playing the best football of his career right now. Look for another big game this week against the Eagles, who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. Philadelphia ranks just 26th overall against the pass.

COLD PLAYS

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos

The Broncos’ decision to have head coach Sean Payton call plays last week didn’t spark the offense. This unit continued to struggle, including Nix. He ranks just 24th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and has reached 20-plus fantasy points in only one of five games. He has also thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of five games. It has been a rough start for Nix, and things might not get much better this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has one of the best defenses in football and allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Woody Marks, RB, Texans

Marks had been emerging as the lead back for the Texans in recent weeks and has now clearly taken over that role because of the injury to David Montgomery. He should get most of the work in the coming weeks with Montgomery sidelined. The Texans have struggled to run the ball all season, though, and have become a pass-first offense. That could be the case again this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville ranks first overall against the run, allowing just 63.8 rushing yards per game. Leave Marks on your bench.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons

Pitts is trending up a little. He had his best fantasy game of the season last week, scoring 15.2 fantasy points. He has yet to top 50 receiving yards in a game, though, and failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in his first four games. Pitts remains far from a sure thing. He also has a tough matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago has really shored up its secondary in recent weeks and allows the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. The Bears have held tight ends below double-digit fantasy points in three of five games. Pitts is probably best left on fantasy benches.

Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jaguars

Tuten has enjoyed a fine first season as the Jaguars’ lead back. He has had double-digit carries in every game and at least 65 rushing yards each time. His consistency has been a real plus for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, his fantasy production has been somewhat underwhelming. Tuten has scored fewer than 12 fantasy points in two straight games, and his season high is just 17 points. Look for another ho-hum performance in Week 6. He faces a Texans team that struggles to stop the pass but is very good against the run. Houston allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and ranks third overall against the run, allowing 78.4 rushing yards per game.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Broncos

Waddle might be one of the biggest busts in fantasy right now. He has scored fewer than seven fantasy points in three of five games. He caught just two passes for 19 yards last week on five targets and has fewer than 40 receiving yards in all but one game. Things aren’t going to get any easier this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has one of the best defenses in football and allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. Don’t expect a sudden turnaround for Waddle in this one.

SLEEPERS

Cam Ward, QB, Titans

Ward is off to a rough start in his second season. He has thrown for more than 200 yards just once all season and has only one game with multiple touchdown passes. Ward does have one game with 20-plus fantasy points, so he has at least shown some potential for a big performance. If he is going to have another big game, this could be the week against a struggling Colts defense. Indianapolis allows the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed more than 30 points in three of five games. Ward might be worth a shot for fantasy teams needing a quarterback because of the bye weeks.

Marshawn Lloyd, RB, Packers

The Packers continue to rotate backs, but Lloyd is getting the most work among the options. He played 44 percent of the snaps last week after playing 55 percent in Week 4. Lloyd found the end zone twice last week, rushing 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns. His rushing totals should increase this week if he gets double-digit carries against the Cowboys. Dallas ranks last against the run and has all sorts of injuries on defense. The Cowboys allow 168.4 rushing yards per game. Lloyd could help as a low-end RB2 or flex play in Week 6.

Jacob Cowing, WR, 49ers

Cowing has done next to nothing so far this season, but he could move into the starting lineup for the 49ers with Deebo Samuel hurt. Cowing played 43 percent of the snaps last week and ranks third on the team in snaps played for the season. He seems set to move into a starting role in San Francisco’s high-powered offense. He will be a risky option for fantasy teams to use, but he could surprise if he gets more playing time. The targets should be there against a bad Commanders secondary. Washington allows the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers.

Charlie Kolar, TE, Chargers

Kolar returned to the lineup last week and played the most snaps of any Chargers tight end, seeing 76 percent of the team's snaps. He had three receptions for 37 yards on four targets. He is more than just a blocking tight end in an offense looking for playmakers. Kolar might be worth a shot this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs have been very good defensively this year, but if they have a weakness, it is stopping tight ends. Kansas City has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position and was torched by both Raiders tight ends in its last game.

Cody White, WR, Raiders

White has gotten some consistent work this year. He has multiple catches in two straight games and at least 35 receiving yards in each of those contests. He reached double-digit fantasy points in Week 1, so the potential is there for White to have a productive game. He has played 62 percent of the snaps in each of his last two games. If White gets that much work again this week against the Bills, he could do well. The Raiders could be playing from behind, leading to more passing opportunities. Plus, Buffalo has struggled to stop receivers this year, allowing the most fantasy points to the position.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week, we'll take a look at some of the high- and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players from those teams into your lineup to take advantage of a possible points barrage. In the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High-Scoring Games

Bears/Falcons, Saints/Giants, Cardinals/Rams, Cowboys/Packers, Commanders/49ers.

Low-Scoring Games

Seahawks/Broncos, Steelers/Bucs.

Bye Weeks

Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, Vikings.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 6

The Paur Report